There now appears to be a growing consensus of expert opinion that Iran is but a few short months away from being capable of producing its first crude nuclear weapon. Some may choose to see this event as “crossing the red line” and even as a trigger for military action as the threat of a nuclear capable Iran may well simply not be tolerated in some quarters. However before such an argument can be easily accepted it would be wise to consider just what actually constitutes a threat. So is Iran now or likely to be anytime soon a genuine “clear and present danger” to either Israel or the West To many within the Intelligence community only a genuine capability and a clear intent equates to an actual threat. Failing to learn the lesson of Iraq Failure to stick to this essential truth sadly provided the backdrop to the gross mistake made over Iraq and Saddam Hussein s supposed weapons of mass destruction WMD program. British premier Tony Blair and president George W Bush in their head-long gallop towards war made much of the claim that there was a threat and it would seem perverted such intelligence information that was available to support this otherwise unsubstantiated claim. Their respective national intelligence services the Central Intelligence Agency and SIS MI6 had significantly failed to provide incontrovertible proof of either a genuine Iraqi WMD capability or a clear intent to use such weapons. This factor was deliberately ignored or perhaps even suppressed by the US and British governments and this deceit would only emerge much later in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion. In the time-honored political blame avoidance game both Bush and Blair moved quickly to ensure that the intelligence services themselves would carry the main responsibility for this failure neatly sidestepping any serious chance of being held to account for their own incompetence and culpability by their respective electorates.
A reality check on Iran and the ‘bomb’ By Richard M Bennet
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